11月30日美股概况

henry · 发表于 2006-12-2 00:13:09

<H1 class=articleTitle style="MARGIN: 0px">Stocks Lose Steam in Recovery From Chicago PMI, Retail Sales</H1>
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ADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; FONT: bold 16px/17px Times New Roman, Times, Serif; COLOR: #666; PADDING-TOP: 13px">Treasury Prices Rally on Data; All Eyes Now on ISM Survey</DIV>
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ADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; FONT: bold 12px times new roman, times, serif; PADDING-TOP: 12px">By WORTH CIVILS November 30, 2006 7:09 p.m. </DIV>
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class=times>Stocks ended a relatively mediocre month on a flat note, but recovered Thursday from an earlier swoon triggered by a low reading of business activity in the Midwest and reports of mixed November retail sales.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which took a dive after the Chicago-area manufacturing data were released at 10 a.m. EST, rebounded in early-afternoon trading, but finished the day near where it started at 12221.93, off 4.80 points. The Dow industrials finished the month up 1.2%, but it was still the worst November since 2003 and the worst monthly performance since July.
Helping support the blue-chip average was <A class=times onmouseover="window.status=(' Quotes & Research for PFE');return true" onmouseout="window.status=('');return true" href="http://online.wsj.com/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=pfe">Pfizer</A>, which gained 1.6% after the drug maker <A class=times href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116489624122936903.html?mod=Todays-Markets">boosted</A> its 2006 earnings-per-share guidance, and <A class=times onmouseover="window.status=(' Quotes & Research for XOM');return true" onmouseout="window.status=('');return true" href="http://online.wsj.com/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=xom">Exxon Mobil</A>, which rose 1% on higher crude-oil prices. But <A class=times onmouseover="window.status=(' Quotes & Research for DD');return true" onmouseout="window.status=('');return true" href="http://online.wsj.com/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=dd">DuPont</A>'s 2.5% hurt the Dow.
<A class=times onmouseover="window.status=(' Quotes & Research for GM');return true" onmouseout="window.status=('');return true" href="http://online.wsj.com/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=gm">General Motors</A> also weighed on the average, as it lost nearly 1% on news that Kirk Kerkorian is <A class=times href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116490807691937049.html?mod=Todays-Markets">further cutting his stake</A> in the auto maker. Mr. Kerkorian's Tracinda investment firm will reduce its holdings in GM to 4.95% from 7.4%.
Broader market measures were also little changed, with the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index up 1.15 at 1400.63 for a gain of 1.6% in November. It's been higher every month this year except for May. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 0.46 to 2431.77, but still finished the month ahead 2.7%, its fourth consecutive monthly advance.
A weaker dollar and higher oil prices also weighed on stocks Thursday. The <A class=times href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116487763235536754.html?mod=Todays-Markets">dollar declined</A> to its lowest level against the pound in 14 years amid a rise in U.K. house prices, and resumed its slump against the yen and the euro, against which it hit a fresh 20-month low after the weak U.S economic data. Crude-oil prices rose 67 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $63.13 a barrel and finish the month of November up 7.5%. The <A class=times href="http://online.wsj.com/page/2_0030.html?mod=2_0030">gains came a day</A> after a government report showed U.S. crude inventories declined for the first time in five weeks, falling by 300,000 barrels, against expectations for a rise of 2.1 million barrels.
The up-and-down action in stocks today was reflective of the market's volatile trading all week. "Nothing goes up in a straight line forever, not even a broad market rally," said Greg Werlinich, president of Werlinich Asset Management in Valhalla, N.Y., in his recent newsletter. He thinks the Dow, which has fallen about 200 points from its all-time high, will hold above 12000. "I'm still concerned that the market might be in a classic 'blow-off' phase, having rallied so strongly over the past five months. But until this rally is reversed, there is no reason to 'fight the tape,'" Mr. Werlinich wrote.
Volume at the New York Stock Exchange was heavy, with more than two billion shares changing hands, even as its broker-booth system for handling orders on the trading floor experienced technical problems between roughly 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. EST. <A class=times onmouseover="window.status=(' Quotes & Research for NYX');return true" onmouseout="window.status=('');return true" href="http://online.wsj.com/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=nyx">NYSE Group</A> said in a statement that customer order flow wasn't affected. "During the…downtime, customer orders were still being processed by floor brokers manually [using paper forms] and through proprietary broker-booth systems, which are unaffected by the systems problem," the NYSE said, adding that electronic orders were also unaffected.
One trader, among many, affected by the technical glitch was Ted Weisberg, founder of Seaport Securities. But the 38-year floor veteran <A class=times href="http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2006/11/30/old-time-trading-on-the-nyse-floor/">said he didn't mind</A> reverting to using paper for a day, as it "was like going back home" and "actually, kind of fun." Even without the incident, he said, "the action today was interesting," citing the weakness this morning followed by a rebound led by oil stocks, which "are making new highs almost daily."
While the Dow industrials finished flat Thursday, Mr. Weisberg remains optimistic. "On balance, the market put in a good performance today, and we've pretty much gotten back almost what we gave up" Monday, he said, noting that November is the fifth month in a row the index has closed higher. "We're probably due for a rest, but the underlying tone remains quite positive."
Before the open, <A class=times href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116482943779235988.html?mod=Todays-Markets">retailers began posting</A> mixed November same-store sales. But many said slow sales in the beginning of the month picked up later during the Black Friday weekend, positioning them for a good holiday season. <A class=times onmouseover="window.status=(' Quotes & Research for WMT');return true" onmouseout="window.status=('');return true" href="http://online.wsj.com/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=wmt">Wal-Mart Stores</A> confirmed a 0.1% decline in its November same-store sales -- short of its earlier forecast for flat same-store sales and its first decline in more than a decade. It predicted flat to 1% growth in December.
Wal-Mart shares fell 1.7%, and other retail shares were a grab-bag of winners and losers: <A class=times onmouseover="window.status=(' Quotes & Research for TGT');return true" onmouseout="window.status=('');return true" href="http://online.wsj.com/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=tgt">Target</A> shares edged higher, while said <A class=times onmouseover="window.status=(' Quotes & Research for COST');return true" onmouseout="window.status=('');return true" href="http://online.wsj.com/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=cost">Costco Wholesale</A> lost 1.9%. <A class=times onmouseover="window.status=(' Quotes & Research for JCP');return true" onmouseout="window.status=('');return true" href="http://online.wsj.com/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=jcp">J.C. Penney</A> slid 2.8%, while <A class=times onmouseover="window.status=(' Quotes & Research for FD');return true" onmouseout="window.status=('');return true" href="http://online.wsj.com/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=fd">Federated Department Stores</A> rose 3%.
U.S. Treasury prices rallied in the wake of the weak Chicago data, sending the 10-year yield below 4.50% to its lowest level in 10 months. Recently, the benchmark note stood at 100 10/32, up 16/32, or $5 per $1,000 invested, to yield 4.47%. The 30-year Treasury gained 28/32 to 99 2/32, yielding 4.56%.
Business activity in the Midwest fell last month, despite expectations for expansion, according to the NAPM-Chicago. The group's Chicago business barometer fell below 50 for the first time in more than three years, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector. The Chicago PMI was 49.9 in November from 53.5 in October, while economists had forecast the index to come in higher at 54.0.
Steven Wood, chief economist at Insight Economics, said the index could be a warning sign that the national manufacturing report from the Institute for Supply Management, due tomorrow, will also fall. But economists expect the ISM's index to increase slightly to 51.9% from 51.2% in October.
Further weak economic data could boost expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates to prevent the economy from slowing too much or even entering a recession. The Fed has kept its benchmark federal-funds rate at 5.25% at each of its past three meetings, after steadily raising rates for two years to combat inflation.
But as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made clear in a speech earlier this week, inflation remains a concern. More economic data Thursday added to those worries; the Commerce Department said the price index for core personal-consumption expenditures -- the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation -- rose 2.4% in October from a year ago, above what is believed to be the Fed's comfort zone between 1.0% and 2.0%.
"It would be helpful to financial markets if the soft economic trend was producing lower inflation rates," Dick Green, president of Briefing.com, said in a morning commentary.
The Commerce Department reported that <A class=times href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116489358499136871.html?mod=Todays-Markets">personal income advanced</A> at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.4% in October, after increasing an unrevised 0.5% in September. Personal spending grew 0.2%, after falling a revised 0.2% in September. Wall Street expected a 0.5% climb in personal income in October and a 0.1% increase in consumer spending.
Also, the Labor Department said jobless claims increased by 34,000 to 357,000 in the week ended Nov. 25. Economists had expected a decrease of 3,000 claims last week. The department said the unexpected jump in claims may be due to seasonal variations that are common to the holiday season in the last weeks of the calendar year. The key unemployment report for November doesn't come until the end of next week.

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