Tomorrow's Gold by marc faber

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Tomorrow's Gold Asia's Age of Discovery by Marc Faber Publisher: CLSA Asia-Pacific MarketsEdition: 2ndFormat: PbRead more Recommended by Tom Stevenson

£19.80 Normal Price £22.00 You save £2.20 (10%) Reprinting - due for publication on 15 Apr 2008 - can be pre-ordered

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Product code: 21784
ISBN: 9628606778, ISBN13: 9789628606771, 373 pages, paperback
Published by CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, 2nd edition
If you have an opinion on this book, we'd love to hear your review - please Email us


Recommended by Tom Stevenson  

Description of Tomorrow's Gold
Renowned investment advisor Marc Faber sets out to find tomorrow's gold - the outperforming asset classes of the future. Far from being a sensational reading of the runes, this book delves deep into the past, to chart how old investor trends developed and assess how new patterns might emerge.



Change is the thread. As Faber points out, the world is experiencing a transformation as great as the late 15th Century's golden age of discovery and the industrial revolution of the 19th Century - events that altered the commercial face of the earth forever.



And from this dramatic landscape - a world in which economic, social and political conditions are morphing at an alarming rate - Faber identifies investment opportunities.



Asia's three billion-strong population will have a profound effect on the world, writes Faber, cautioning that today's richest cities and clusters of wealth are unlikely to retain their exalted positions in the future.


Contents of Tomorrow's Gold
1. A world of change



2. Major future investment themes



3. A caution about high-return investment expectations



4. Another warning to emerging market investors!



5. The life cycle of emerging markets



6. Business cycles - Alive and well!



7. Long waves in economic conditions



8. New eras, manias and bubbles



9. Opportunities in Asia



10. The economics of inflation



11. The rise and fall of centres of prosperity



12. Why the US is unlikely to provide the next leadership



13. Asia in transition



Epilogue: Wealth inequality - The great shadow



Bibliography

Index


About Marc Faber
Dr Marc Faber is a contrarian. To be a good contrarian, you need to know what you are contrary about. It helps to be a world class economic historian, to have been a trader and managing director of Drexel Burnham Lambert when the firm was the junk bond king of Wall Street, to have lived in Hong Kong for a quarter of a century, and to have a contact book crammed with the home numbers of many of the movers and shakers in the financial world.



Famous for his approach to investing, Marc Faber does not run with the bulls or bait the bears but steers his own course through the maelstrom of international finance markets. In 1987 he warned his clients to cash out before Black Monday on Wall Street. He made them handsome profits by forecasting the burst in the Japanese Bubble in 1990. He correctly predicted the collapse in US gaming stocks in 1993; and he foresaw the Asia-Pacific financial crisis of 1997/98 and the resulting global volatility.

midas

很少人知道Marc是毛主席的好学生。他的办公室里毛主席的半身塑像和毛选跟着他几十年。

dwenlv

原帖由 midas 于 2008-3-13 07:36 发表
很少人知道Marc是毛主席的好学生。他的办公室里毛主席的半身塑像和毛选跟着他几十年。

又跟老师很熟啊～～老师果然很强～～

黄河之水天上来

A tribute to Marc Faber, part one: US dollar, Nasdaq, gold and oil
Dr Marc Faber once said that any journalist could write a positive or negative article about him by picking out his good or bad calls. But just as Nury Vittachi could sit down in the late 1990s and pen a whole book that sided with the postive view of Faber, AME Info has scanned over 100 articles and reached a similar opinion.
Sunday, March 16 - 2008 at 00:05
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So what did Dr Doom get wrong in the 2000s? Not a great deal really, but actually his biggest error was a repeat of the error of pessimism he committed in the 1990s about the length and durability of the US stock market upturn.

What he missed entirely was that the start of the Second Gulf War in spring 2003 would be a 'Bottom War', marking the bottom of the US stock downturn that began in early 2000. He thought US stocks were down and would fall still further.

His record on the US dollar was much better, and in February 2003 he was perfectly correct in saying: 'In the course of 2002, we have repeatedly warned that US dollar weakness was only a matter of time.

'Since the summer of 2002, the dollar has weakened considerably and we feel that the 1995-2002 bull market has definitely come to an end and that, after a brief technical rally, more dollar weakness should be expected in 2003, as the US economy continues to disappoint.'

What actually happened was that the nominal US stock market rally was then supported by the declining value of the US dollar, and the value of US equity investments if denominated in non-US dollar currencies drifted sideways.

So in that sense Faber's pessimism about the performance of US equities throughout the 2000s was proven correct as US stocks went nowhere in foreign currency terms.


Nasdaq spot-on
He was also right as regards the Nasdaq. In October 2000 his AME Info column noted: 'This Nasdaq 5000 level may very well turn out to be as much of a 'milestone' in financial history as the Nikkei 39,000 level reached in December 1989.

'When the Nasdaq reached in March the 5000 level, this Index consisted of about 4,800 stocks with a market capitalisation in excess of US $6 trillion. Based on combined Nasdaq earnings estimates for the year 2000 of US$25bn, these stocks had, in March 2000, collectively a P/E of about 240!

'Now, let us assumes that the Nasdaq with its $6 trillion valuation can grow its earnings at a compound rate of 20% per annum for the next 10 years 'without interruption.' At the end of the period, in 2010, let us also assumes that the P/E of the Nasdaq will be twice its earnings growth rate (of 20% per annum). In other words the Nasdaq will sell for 40 times earnings.

'Since the S&P 500 sells for about 28 times earnings, the assumption of a P/E of 40 for the Nasdaq is quite realistic. Under this scenario, the Nasdaq's current $25bn in earnings will grow to $155bn in 10 years time and with a P/E of 40, these $155bn would have a value of $6.2 trillion. In short, even under this extremely and, in my opinion, totally unrealistic scenario, the Nasdaq would at best be in 10 years time where it was in March of this year.'

With the benefit of hindsight this is a superb application of sober investment analysis to the dot-com boom folly that still held some investors fixed like rabbits in a car headlights in late 2000. And as we now know even seven years later the Nasdaq was still only worth half of its 2000 peak.


Gold tipped in 2001
But his most brilliant call was undoutedly to buy gold in early 2001, way ahead of most other market commentators and following a 20 year bear market that had left the gold market in a mood of deep depression and dispondency. It was an incredibly radical call, and first appeared in an article in February 2001 with a groundbreaking fundamental analysis of the gold market.

'Today, I should like to advocate the purchase of a group of stocks, which has over the last 20 years been the worst under-performer. This group consists of gold mining companies around the world, all of which have a combined stock market capitalisation of only $30bn.

'In other words, you could buy the world's entire gold mining industry for just $30bn. A bargain when you consider that Cisco and Microsoft alone had earlier last year a combined stock market capitalisation of more than $1 trillion, and that Amazon.com was valued at its peak at $35bn.

'Every year in the 1990s, physical gold demand has exceeded the annual supply of approximately 2,500 tons - valued at present at about $35bn - by about 300 to 500 tons. Compare this to the annual supply of bonds in the world, which amounts to about $3.5 trillion and it becomes evident, how small the supply of gold is.

'Then consider this. In the year 2000, Indians bought about 850 tons of gold. In other words, in India, where the GDP per capita is only $300 per annum, every man, woman and child bought almost one gram of gold each. If gold became one day as popular as platinum or the Nasdaq is at present, and every person in the world bought just one gram of gold, it would generate an annual demand of 6,000 tons, which is about 2.5 times its annual supply from mines.'

Probably nobody has written a better assessment of the fundamental case for investment in gold, and at the same time Faber also correctly called for an emerging market stock rally based on a resurgent China that also had an important message for the commodity markets in general:

'As more and more foreign companies start to produce in China, its domestic economy will remain robust and lead to rising property prices in the long run. In this respect, I believe that Shanghai properties are one of the most interesting investments at the present time.

'In India, I can see that the software industry will continue to grow. The Indian software industry will not only penetrate the domestic market but it will also gain market share from software providers in Europe and the US thanks to its cost advantages.'


Investment classic
Indeed, by the middle of 2001 Faber had made the critical market judgments that would be the subject of his own classic investment book, 'Tomorrow's Gold' published at the end of 2002. This book correctly forecasted the bull market in commodities, particularly for oil and gold and the growth of emerging markets.

No review of Faber's popular column on AME Info could be complete without also looking at his assessment of the oil market which in 2004 forecast continued strength in the oil market, and as with the earlier gold item gives a superb summary of the bullish long term case for oil. In fact, as far back as 2000 he suggested that oil would hit $100 a barrel.

In 2004 he said: 'Since its last major low in 1998 at $12 (when 'The Economist' published a very bearish piece about oil), crude oil prices have climbed to around $50 at present. The question, therefore, arises whether oil prices are headed for a sharp fall, as most analysts seem to think, or whether far higher prices could become reality in the years to come.

'Over the last two years we have repeatedly explained how rising demand for oil in Asia would likely lead to higher prices - this especially because we took the view that the oil producing countries in the world were unlikely to be in a position to increase their production meaningfully.

'At $50, one might, however, be tempted to think that oil prices are substantially over-bought - certainly from a near term perspective - and ready to decline again. Therefore, I have noted that numerous market participants have been shorting oil futures in the hope of a sharp fall…Still, I maintain the view that we may see sometime in future far higher prices than anybody envisions.


Oil outlook
'First of all, if we look at oil prices in real terms - that is oil prices adjusted for inflation - the real prices is right now still about 50% lower than it was at its January 1980 peak. In fact, oil is now not much higher than it was in the early 1970s, when the last big oil bull market got underway.

'But, what is important to understand is that whereas the 1970 oil price increases were coming from a supply shock, which was driven by OPEC cutting its production all the while large production excess capacities existed, the current oil bull market is purely a function of increased demand coming principally from Asia at a time global oil production has practically no spare capacity which could lead to much higher production than the current 80 million barrels per day. So, whereas we can say that the 1970s oil shock was 'event driven', today's oil price increase is structural in nature.'

It is hardly any wonder that Marc Faber remains a popular commentator with his successful investment calls far outweighing his occasional mistakes.

Part two in this series will look at how he called the market top for US housing.

黄河之水天上来

Specific recommendations for 2003
From a longer-term point of view we like investments in Asia, since the Asian economies are not only recovering from the 1997 crisis but remain extremely competitive in the manufacturing and, increasingly, in the tradable service sector, while their stock market valuations remain relatively low.
Sunday, February 09 - 2003 at 20:04
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In particular, I should like to mention that the current US dollar weakness in no way alters the Asian economies' competitive position, since the Chinese Renminbi is pegged to the US dollar at a time when the other Asian economies are increasingly feeling the threat from the colossal Chinese export machine, which is eating into their export markets.

So unless China revalues its currency (which is not very likely, for now), it is unlikely that the other Asian exporting nations would wish to have strongly appreciating currencies. And while US economic policy makers will continue to stimulate credit growth and consumption in the US by increasing the indebtedness of households, the wealth transfer to Asia via the US trade and current account deficit will continue and stimulate industrial production in Asia and other emerging economies.

To an unbiased observer it would seem almost that US economic policies are designed to impoverish the United States and to enrich Asia, since in a deflationary environment and amidst globalisation it is inevitable that production must shift to the lowest-cost producers, which then flood the high-cost Western industrialised countries with low-cost goods.

Moreover, it is only a matter of time before knowledge- and science-related services will also be exported from Asia, since the cost of establishing and maintaining research labs is far lower in India and China than in Western countries. Consequently, I remain quite positive about investments in Asia - in particular, because investors around the world remain underweight the Asian region.

So, while US international mutual funds had over 4% of their assets invested in Asia between 1993 and 1997, today, these funds have less than 1% of their assets in this region. However, considering that Asia is not only growing more rapidly than Western countries, but is also home to 56% of the world's population, and that many of its markets - such as for TVs, radios, motorcycles, cellular phones, steel, etc. - are far larger than in Euroland or the US, even a 4% exposure would seem to be extremely low and a less-than-1% asset allocation almost irresponsible.

Therefore, it is my belief that it is only a matter of time before the world's savings, which between 1997 and 2001 flowed largely to the United States, will be redirected towards Asia and lead to fairly strong rallies in the region. And although Asian markets have outperformed the US over the last two years, they remain extremely depressed by historical standards. In US dollar terms, many Asian markets are still down by 70% from their highs, but, unlike the Nasdaq, they have now built bases since 1998 and therefore offer lower-risk entry points than the TMT sector, the S&P 500, and Western European markets, which, although down percentage-wise by a similar amount, have at this point not built any longer-term bases.

I am repeatedly asked about investments in Asia and, as I have suggested in the past, there are numerous avenues to participate in the Asian region. For retail investors, there are a number of closed-end Asian funds available, such as the Singapore Fund (SGF), the MSDW Asia Pacific Fund (APF), and the Asia Pacific Fund (APB), which are all listed on the New York Stock Exchange and sell at discounts of between 10% and 20% of net asset value.

The India Fund (IFN), the India Growth Fund (IGF), the Jardine Fleming India Fund (JFI), and the Morgan Stanley India Investment Fund (IIF) are also listed on the NYSE. For an exposure to China, the following funds, which are listed on the NYSE, could be considered: the China Fund (CHN), the Greater China Fund (GCH), the JF China Region Fund (JFC), and the Templeton China World Fund (TCH).

For those investors who are more value-oriented, I recommend the following funds. The Apollo Asia Fund, run by Claire Barnes (www.apolloinvestment.com), which was up by 38% last year and compounded 30% since its inception some five years ago, is a long stock fund only and specialises in Asian small value stocks. Richard Lawrence's Overlook Investment Company invests principally in smaller and mid cap value companies around the Asian region. The minimum investment in Overlook is US$250,000 (rlawrence@overlookinv.com).

For an exposure to India, Jon Thorn's India Capital Fund (up 28% in 2002) is particularly recommended (www.indiacapitalfund.com). For a hedged strategy in Asia, I recommend Michael Sofaer's SCI Asian Hedge Fund, which, although a hedge fund, has a long bias (www.sofaer.com). In Thailand, Doug Barnett manages the Thai Focused Equity Fund (www.questthai.com) using a disciplined long-short strategy, which over the last ten years has generated very impressive results in a poor market environment.

In terms of individual stocks, I like to play the potential of rising commodity prices, further strong growth in China, India, and Vietnam, and moderate growth of about 4-5% around the Asian region. In particular, as prices for manufactured products and services continue to decline, the consumer markets in Asia will continue to expand rapidly as goods and services become affordable to a larger and larger segment of the population. In turn, this will fuel an increased demand for industrial commodities, which will lift commodity prices and also benefit the stocks of basic industries.

In terms of services, which will continue to thrive thanks to their cost advantages and affordability, I am thinking in particular of the Indian software industry and the tourism industry in Asia. Chinese outbound tourists increased last year by 25% to more than 12.5 million travellers and cushioned somewhat the impact from fewer arrivals from the US and Europe, due to fears of terrorism.

As our regular readers will know, I am not particularly optimistic about the US economy, its stock and bond market, and the US dollar. Still, on a relative basis, I like some basic and resource stocks, which are likely to outperform the indexes in the next two to three years. I believe that we are at the beginning of a better relative performance, which could last for several years.

In this spirit, I recommend the accumulation of oil servicing and drilling companies such as Schlumberger (SLB), Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO), and IMC Global (IGL), a fertilizer company. In the mining sector, stocks such as Harmony Gold (HMY), Newmont Mining (NEM), Glamis Gold (GLG), Durban Roodepoort (DROOY), Pan American Silver (PAAS), Apex Silver (SIL), and Coeur d'Alene (CDE) should be part of a portfolio.

I have to point out that, in the near term, mining stocks may not perform particularly well and may decline 20-30%. Considering the strong performance of gold, these shares haven't acted well recently and failed to exceed their highs in 2002. This technical non-confirmation raises a warning flag. As a play on rising grain prices, the Argentine company Cresud (CRESY) could be used, as well as global agribusiness and food company Bunge (BG).

Moving to Asia, the following stocks should be accumulated: in India, where the economy is performing above expectations, Reliance Industries (RIL IN), State Bank of India (SBI IN), Dr. Reddy (RDY), Z Telefilms (Z IN), and Infosys (INFY). Individuals may find it difficult to purchase Indian stocks and, therefore, I suggest that they use the India Capital Fund, which holds a number of these issues (www.indiacapitalfund.com).

In Indonesia, a country whose economy is performing better due to rising commodity prices, P T Telekomunikasi (TLK), Indofarma (a pharmaceutical company yielding 9%; INAF IJ), Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ), and our old favourite, Sampoerna (HMSP IJ), can be used. In Singapore, we believe that Singapore Telecommunications (ST SP) has been grossly oversold (it now yields 4%). For an exposure to China, the following stocks should be considered. Tsingtao Brewery (listed in Hong Kong: 168 HK) produces and distributes beer and is now also moving into the wine business.

Its P/E is about 13 and it yields 5%. The attraction of Tsingtao, as well as of Sampoerna in Indonesia, is market share gains. Since 1998, Tsingtao has been able to increase its market share from just 3% to almost 14%, while Sampoerna continues to gain market share in Indonesia at the expense of Gudang Garan and other cigarette producers. This is an important factor that investors should consider when investing in Asia.

Another play on China is People's Food Holdings (listed in Hong Kong: 708 HK), a well-managed meat processor and marketer selling for about five times earnings and yielding more than 5%. A somewhat controversial company is Brilliance China - China's largest minibus producer, which has favourable growth prospects (listed in Hong Kong: 1114 HK). Finally a play on China's growing inbound and outbound tourism are the Hong Kong-listed hotel chains Shangri-la Asia (69 HK) and Hong Kong & Shanghai Hotels (45 HK).

What is also important to understand is the current rise of a new entrepreneurial class in Asia, which is not connected to the political elite and is likely to play an increasingly important role in shaping Asia's economic and political future.

My friend Jimmy Lai fits perfectly into this category. After founding Giordano and successfully building it into one of the region's most successful apparel retail chains, he sold it and built a publishing business, first in Hong Kong and now also in Taiwan. His company, Next Media Limited (listed in Hong Kong: 282 HK), should reward investors in the long term. It is also a play on a regime change in China some time in the future, which would enable Jimmy Lai to enter the Chinese newspaper and magazine market.

Then, there is Japan, whose economy is not performing well but where corporate earnings are improving as a result of cost cutting and the move of production facilities to countries with a lower cost base. In addition, Japanese stocks have now a higher dividend yield than government bonds, which yield less than 1%. Therefore, as a 'reflation trade' and 'extreme contrarian trade', we would be looking to buy the Nikkei Index and to short Japanese JGBs. Japanese shares are not as inexpensive as Asian stocks, but my sense is that in 2003 they could all surprise us on the upside.

In Thailand, we like Thai Stanley Electric (STANLY TB), Thailand's leading supplier of auto lighting equipment, Thai Reinsurance (THRE TB), Dynasty Ceramics (DCC TB), and Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BGH TB). Lastly, while I don't like financial stocks in the US, Thai banks look quite attractive. Therefore, a basket of Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB), Bangkok Bank (BBL TB), and Thai Farmers Bank (TFB TB) is also recommended.

There are three caveats I must mention with respect to Asian investments. The first would be that the US consumer really caves in (as I believe is likely). Lower consumption in the US would lead to slower export growth from Asia, or even to an export contraction. And while I don't think that this would be a devastating blow for Asian economic growth, it would nevertheless have a negative impact on foreign investors' appetite for Asian equities.

Therefore, markets may not perform particularly well under such a scenario. The second concern I have is that, although economic growth looks superficially strong, Asian consumers are increasingly purchasing goods on credit, which may in the long-term lead to some problems among financial institutions.

Finally, there is a potential geopolitical problem. I don't regard North Korea's decision to restart a nuclear reactor and a plutonium reprocessing plant that had been mothballed under a 1994 agreement with the US, along with its decision to withdraw from the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, to be a major problem per se. The problem lies in the question of who made the call to North Korea's Dear Leader Kim Jong Il and suggested that he use the current US engagement and paralysis in the Middle East as a golden opportunity to restart his nuclear program.

For sure, it wasn't one of the Western European nations, the US, Japan, or any of the Latin American countries, but what about Iran, Iraq, China, Russia, or even South Korea? Both Iraq and Iran have an interest in creating as much geopolitical trouble for the US as possible and in shifting the attention of the US away from the Middle East. The Chinese are also a likely candidate for such a call, since they may wish to use North Korea in future in the same way the Soviet Union used Bulgaria during the Cold War to carry out dirty jobs.

Russia could also be interested in North Korea as an ally, fearing the increased Chinese presence and influence in Far East Russia. Finally, the South Koreans know that unification with North Korea is only a matter of time. So, why not seize the opportunity to have the North bring into the marriage nuclear weapons, given Korea's small size and military vulnerability when compared to its powerful neighbours such as China, Russia, and Japan?

In any event, this new 'situation' is most embarrassing for the US, because it makes a war in Iraq more difficult to justify if the US fails to take any military action against North Korea, which seemingly is also interested in acquiring weapons of mass destruction.

In the course of 2002, we have repeatedly warned that US dollar weakness was only a matter of time. Since the summer of 2002, the dollar has weakened considerably and we feel that the 1995-2002 bull market has definitely come to an end and that, after a brief technical rally, more dollar weakness should be expected in 2003, as the US economy continues to disappoint.

宁静至远

国际著名金融专家麦嘉华：投资房产首选上海

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://house.sina.com.cn 2006年03月01日16:58 《三联地产竞争力》杂志  

　　曾被多家国际著名投资杂志评为当代杰出的金融与投资人的麦嘉华博士(Dr Marc Faber)，一直被封为具争议性的灾难预言者。从1987年美股黑色星期五、1990年日股泡沫、1994年墨西哥金融危机、1997年亚洲金融风暴、以及2000年的科技股泡沫，他都提出过悲观而耸动预测。由于他擅长利用泡沫行情赚大钱，所以赢得“末日博士”的封号。

　　一束短短的马尾在脑后，是麦嘉华的招牌造形，身高一八五公分，长相神似007老牌演


   
  
  



员肖恩·康纳利，随时保持警觉的眼神，从来不随主流论调起舞的麦嘉华，在本次接受《地产新闻》专访时却乐观的表示：看好中国房地产市场。甚至他还准备加入中国的“炒房”队伍中来。

　　中国不动产是优质资产

　　《地产新闻》：站在中国于美国的经济联系这一层面上，您怎样理解目前的中国房地产市场？

　　麦嘉华：毋庸质疑的是，中国已经成为世界上某些行业和地区发展的主要引擎，中国的经济增长虽然打破了旧的经济秩序，全球投资风向也因此发生转变，权力平衡也会因此而改变。

　　美国最近一年经济恢复，失业率不断降低，主要靠的就是房地产业。股市泡沫破灭，IT泡沫破灭都掀不起大浪，就怕房地产泡沫破灭。一旦房地产这个泡沫破灭了，全社会开始节衣缩食，购买力大降。同时，地产行业萧条，大量失业人口又会出来，经济就会跌入深谷。

　　在过去4年里，消费支出和住宅建筑产值在美国GDP增幅中占到90%，与房地产相关的产业创造了全美私营部门2/5的就业岗位。如果房价大降，房地产对美国经济的作用将从推动转变为拖累，其他国家和地区也不可避免受到冲击。美国人如果这样倒霉，和中国的关系从格林斯潘的话中，你就可以找到答案：房地产一往下走，美国人的钱包就关上了。大家开始储蓄，而不是消费。美国的进口会大幅度下降。只要美国负债迅速增长，全球经济就会存在很大的不平衡。负债增长推动了美国国内物价和消费上升；然而，生产过程和资本支出却在亚洲，特别是在中国进行。美国的过度消费和缺乏资本，导致美国对中国及亚洲其它国家的经常帐(指美国净国外财富或投资)赤字不断增大。

　　而在2000年科技泡沫以来，美国联邦准备理事会(Fed)把利率从6.5%降到1%，加上印制太多钞票，加剧通货膨胀。再加上美国股市在1998年之后得到外国资金的追捧，才能够支撑至今，而这些资金是因为亚洲发生金融危机，从该区域撤离转向美国的。

　　所以在未来几年内，当美国钞票印太多的后遗症全部显现的时候，美国消费者物价的通膨压力应该会比现在要高出许多，届时债券市场和美元会下跌，资金将源源流向亚洲。而目前中国是全球化的主力领跑者之一，亚洲经济的主要推动力。美国资产大规模移向亚洲，中国的货币、房地产等亚洲资产升值只是时间早晚的问题。

　　当然，如今不管是世界经济还是中国经济，都过度依靠美国人的超前消费。这种超前消费，目前已经到了极限。如果美国的市场坍塌，再加上石油危机，几头夹击，中国的经济也会受到打击。

　　《地产新闻》：那比较中国与美国近一年多都比较关注的房地产泡沫问题，之间有怎样的区别？

　　麦嘉华：目前，美国经济发展已经失衡，消费过度、房地产泡沫是很大的隐忧。从2000年以来，支撑美国经济的并非资本支出，而是消费。消费是由严重的信用扩张所带动，信用扩张拉抬高房价，消费者借着房地产再抵押而取得资金。因此，过去几年来，美国的消费是由房地产价格膨胀所带动，或者更精确地说，是过度消费所致。

　　格林斯潘认为，消费者物价水准(CPI)不高，就没有通货膨胀；我却认为，CPI不高的主要原因来自于中国出口廉价产品，并不是钞票印制太多引发的通货膨胀不存在。过去几年，随着中国的经济开放，美国制造业和服务业的价格得以持续压低，以致没有发生通货膨胀，只是现在，房地产暴涨之后已出现泡沫现象。

　　欧美国家有房地产泡沫，中国有固定投资成长过快的泡沫，中国部分区域的房地产、电子及汽车业，有固定投资的泡沫，这些产业的产能扩充太快，供给竞争太激烈，需要很多时间消耗。不过，如果要比较欧美和中国的房地产泡沫，我认为中国的结构比较健康，可以长期地关注。

　　有一段时间，很多人讨论中国经济会怎么着陆？我认为中国的区域太大，统计本来就会失真，有些地方硬着陆，有些是软着陆，有些不着陆，但整体来看，如果设定9%到12%是正常的经济成长率，掉到5%才算是硬着陆，否则就可以接受。

　　上海房地产仍被看好

　　《地产新闻》：房地产投资您比较看好中国哪些城市？

　　麦嘉华：如果要投资房地产，我一定优先选择上海，而不是伦敦、波士顿等热门城市。就长线来看，上海房地产价格将超越全球许多大城市。随着中国快速都市化，越来越多人口迁徙到城市，我相当看好上海的房地产。虽然目前上海房价上涨很快，即便现在经过调整以后的价格对上海人来说还是很贵。但从长期来看，目前价格还不算太贵。我认为，十年后上海的地价可能超过香港，因此，我宁愿买上海而不买香港，就算短期被套牢，相信长期还是会赚钱。

　　《地产新闻》：你一直是一个悲观论者，擅长做空，你又看好上海地产行业，这是否就意味着你不会在上海投资房地产？

　　麦嘉华：目前我还没有在上海买房地产，原因有两个，一是我不懂中文，在投资上可能会有阻扰；二是如果只持有一百万，甚至一、两千万美元的资金，投资中国可能会显得微不足道。我已经五十九岁了，不需要赚太多钱，我的资金分散在欧债、美债以及小量的欧洲股票、亚洲股票、商品，比较大的比重在不动产，比如新西兰的土地、房地产等。我在亚洲的房地产投资主要集中在越南、泰国，因为我有一位熟识的越南投资伙伴。如果能找到可靠的伙伴，我也不排除在中国置产。

　　《地产新闻》：对于都在争论上海房地产泡沫，您如何看待？

　　麦嘉华：目前上海的房地产可能有一点泡沫，但十年后回头来看，现在的价格不会太离谱。现在香港的Α级写字楼，每平方米售价约2万到3万美元，上海约3000到4000美元，这两地的环境差别并没有那么大，为什么价格相差将近十倍？我认为十年后上海的地价可能超过香港，因此，相对看来上海还算便宜，如果要买房地产，我宁愿买上海而不买香港，就算短期被套牢，长期还是会赚钱。虽然我不急着在上海置产，但若要投资，我一定优先选择上海，而不是伦敦、波士顿等热门都会区。就长线眼光来看，上海房地产价格将超越全球许多大城市。

　　投资房地产不如“种地”？

　　《地产新闻》：现在中国房地产成为国际上最热门的投资领域，在中国国内也出现了类似“温州炒房团”这样的民间投资组织，您是怎样看待这些投资的？

　　麦嘉华：我有一个朋友和他的合伙人，把香港所有的赌马资料输入程序，大概有一千多匹马的资料，从中分析出最可能赢的下注方式，六年下来，他在赌马上赚了一亿多美元，不过他并不经常下注，只有在赢面很大时，才勇敢下注赚了大钱，他并不常赌，也不是每次都赢，但是长期下来就是大赢家。

　　专业赌徒和顶尖投资人很像，都在等待一个机会的发生，这个机会是赢面最大的机会，他可以很久没有动作，只在关键点出手，守株待兔、等待机会，但机会不会一直在那里等你，或者说那不是个最佳机会，虽然也能赚钱，就像目前的上海房地产市场。

　　投资好比打网球，一个顶尖如阿加西的球员，可以控制自己，把球打到他想要的落点，但我们一般人打球，只能要求自己不出错，再求技巧上的进步。买股票时，你只有万分之一的机会买到英特尔、微软这种会赚大钱的标的，大多数的时间都在赔钱，就像打球，每个人的条件不同，作法也不应相同，但多数散户在下单时，都认为自己是专家。所以，我比较相信不动产的投资价值，如果单价不太高，长期总是会增值的，而这段时间你就不会因冲动买股票而赔钱。毕竟地产投资是长线的投资。

　　现在，因为中国都市化，很多农地拿去盖工厂或高尔夫球场，人们都看到了投资房地产的机会，却忽略了人民对吃的要求，我最看好谷物的投资价值。

　　麦嘉华：我行我素的投资能手

　　中午十二点起床，先收发信件、吃饭，下午去上泰文课程，吃过晚饭后小憩一下，大约晚上九点工作到隔天早上五点，完全是维持纽约作息时间，一个月只在泰国清迈住十天，其余时间则是旅行和出差——这就是麦嘉华在清迈的作息，“这样的作息让我到欧美没有时差的问题，而且晚上思路清楚。”

　　麦嘉华的工作内容就是看CNBC，注意金融市场的风吹草动。“我的办公桌上除了计算机外，还有Bloomberg彭博系统，一旁的电视则固定在CNBC台。”长期对亚洲金融市场的关注，使他全程掌握到八十年代亚洲的崛起和泡沫。关于长线投资，麦嘉华最辉煌的战功就是在1989年日经指数三万多点的时候，买进日本日经指数的卖权(PUT)，结果那一波日经指数自高峰跌落，赚了二十倍。

　　麦嘉华并不成日埋首数字堆，他有丰富的夜生活经验，甚至在台湾《财讯》月刊写过“我的猎艳与投资经验”，文中提到，“如果事先计划好要如何共度良宵，必然出岔子，投资也一样，‘确定性’这东西从来没存在过。”

　　麦嘉华也可以从机票价格的变化，看到亚洲性产业(妓女价格)崩盘的原因，“现在机票便宜了，女孩子大量进入香港，香港夜生活女伴行情大跌，如果经过通货膨胀调整，亚洲性产业的价格和三十年前比，根本是完全崩盘。”

　　麦嘉华1947年出生于瑞士苏黎士，并在苏黎士大学取得经济学博士学位。自1973年起一直居于香港。1978-1990年间，出任Drexel Burnham Lambert(HK) Ltd的董事总经理。1990年创办麦嘉华公司，担任投资顾问、基金经理兼证券商。

　　麦嘉华采取某种程度的推论立场来解析主要议题，喜用历史考证来解释未来。老是爱用他定期出版的通讯刊物《股市荣枯及厄运报导》(The Gloom，Boom and Doom Report)来影响读者。他某些精辟的评论都是和投资人过度看好投资前景有关。

　　几年前麦嘉华离开居住三十五年的香港，只留了一个办公室，自己则搬进花了两年时间装修的位于清迈的办公室和新家。近年来全球地缘政治造成局势紧张，是麦嘉华研究的重点， “清迈等东亚地区都是相对安全的。伦敦，是恐怖份子攻击的对象；华盛顿，居高不下的谋杀率，都不是好的住家。”看来在麦嘉华的眼中，美国除了有脆弱的金融体系外，就连居住环境都不好。

　　谈到麦嘉华的投资，就一定要提到他收藏的毛泽东相关物品，从1970年到亚洲发展，他就认为被10亿中国人奉为神明的毛泽东纪念品，未来一定是抢手货，便从投资眼光下手，去旧书店买海报、语录、纪念章。“当时海报一张只要几毛钱，这一收就是三千多张，现在这些收藏都静静地躺在清迈的阁楼上。”

　　在清迈的生活让他唯一觉得不太习惯的是，这里的司机有90%都没有驾照，他们开车时看左边、看右边，甚至于转头和后面的人聊天，就是忘了看前面，或者是看看自己，“这是不是很像投资人？”看清金融市场、远离群众和专家，学会与他们相处，然后从中获利，这就是末日博士麦嘉华的生活方式。(记者 程磊)

黄河之水天上来

2008 outlook for currencies, stocks and commodities
Back in the summer of 1988 I was glomming around northern Virginia. My best friend worked at Mount Vernon Manor, George Washington's solid gold house, making and selling hamburgers. He explained to me that there had been a couple of instances of Japanese tourists trying to pay for a $1 orange juice with a $100 bill (and not looking for $99 in change).
Tuesday, December 11 - 2007 at 09:20
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When purchasing power gets out of whack, as is currently happening in the US, it makes the news. However, there are many factors other than currency movements that can lead to a rebalancing of purchasing power parities. Let me explain.

When I arrived in 1973 in Hong Kong, I frequently asked when people quoted me prices if they meant US dollars or Hong Kong dollars. Prices were simply so inexpensive. At the time you could take a fairly long taxi drive for less than one US dollar.

But what happened thereafter was not that the Hong Kong dollar appreciated against the US dollar but that inflation in Hong Kong exceeded US inflation for so long that in the end the Hong Kong dollar was devalued against the US dollar by more than 40%.


Profit outlook
Since both commodity prices and interest rates peaked out in 1980/81 it is safe to assume that the principal cause for the profit margin expansion in the 1980s and 1990s were meaningful declines in interest rates and commodity prices.

However, in the current environment where cost pressures are becoming more common because of rising commodity prices, while at a time when revenue growth is slowing down, corporate profits are likely to disappoint over the next twelve months or so and put pressure on equity prices.

As of late November, stock markets around the world became very oversold. With the prospect of the money-printing Fed cutting interest rates further and now also with other central banks likely to follow the Fed, stock markets have begun to rebound.

The rebound is likely to last until around the turn of the year whereby new highs will most likely not be achieved. Thereafter, stocks should resume their downtrend as it will become evident even to the diehard optimists that the economy is already in recession and that corporate profits will contract further.


New Year sell
Therefore, we would use further strength in equity markets as a selling opportunity (for the S&P selling is recommended on a rebound to around 1500).

On balance, conditions for a dollar rally have improved and a shift from Euros into dollars or a long US dollar position versus the Euro or the British Pound is recommended as an intermediate trade. As mentioned before the easier trade may be to buy the Yen against the British Pound or against the Euro.

I am cautious about industrial commodity prices, which could come under pressure as global liquidity growth and the global economy slows down. And while I still think that gold will outperform equities in the years to come I believe that a more meaningful correction in the price of gold is now underway.

slowblue

貌似他说a股8000点和中国经济将在9-12个月内崩溃？？