2007年中国股市资料收集和预期

TigerX4

<FONT color=#000000><FONT size=4><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-list: Ignore">1、<SPAN style="FONT: 7pt 'Times New Roman'"><FONT face=宋体><FONT size=4>资金</FONT></FONT></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">供需关系。股市增量资金和新增资金需求</SPAN></FONT></FONT>
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<P><FONT color=#000000><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">&nbsp;2007</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">年证券市场有望增加约<SPAN lang=EN-US>4500</SPAN>亿元的资金供给，资金需求量将有望超过<SPAN lang=EN-US>3900</SPAN>亿元。总体来说，资金充裕。<SPAN lang=EN-US><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com<img src=" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></FONT> </P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p><FONT color=#000000></FONT></o:p></SPAN></B>&nbsp;</P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p><FONT color=#000000>2007<B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">年证券市场有望增加约<SPAN lang=EN-US>4500</SPAN>亿元:</SPAN></B></FONT></o:p></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><FONT color=#000000>增量资金主要来源于储蓄存款、保险资金、社保资金、<SPAN lang=EN-US>QFII</SPAN>的继续净流入<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><FONT color=#000000>储蓄存款（包括基金部分）流入：<SPAN lang=EN-US>4000</SPAN>亿元人民币<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><FONT color=#000000>QFII</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><FONT color=#000000>流入：<SPAN lang=EN-US>250</SPAN>亿人民币<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><FONT color=#000000>保险资金和社保资金流入：<SPAN lang=EN-US>250</SPAN>亿</FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"></P></BLOCKQUOTE><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><FONT color=#000000><SPAN lang=EN-US>2007</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>A</SPAN>股市场的资金需求量将有望超过<SPAN lang=EN-US>3900</SPAN>亿元，</FONT></SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><FONT color=#000000>基本分布如下。</FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><FONT color=#000000>　　<SPAN lang=EN-US>IPO</SPAN>：预计达<SPAN lang=EN-US>2600</SPAN>亿元</FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><FONT color=#000000><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>2007</FONT></SPAN><FONT color=#000000>年大盘蓝筹类公司的新发融资额度将有望超过<SPAN lang=EN-US>1000</SPAN>亿元</FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><FONT color=#000000><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>2007</FONT></SPAN><FONT color=#000000>年中小企业板的融资规模将超过<SPAN lang=EN-US>660</SPAN>亿元。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><FONT color=#000000><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">2007</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">年其他类别公司的上市融资规模预计在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1000</SPAN>亿元左右。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 27pt; mso-para-margin-left: 2.57gd"><FONT color=#000000><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">2007</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">年增发：预计有<SPAN lang=EN-US>500</SPAN>亿元的资金需求<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 27pt; mso-para-margin-left: 2.57gd"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><FONT color=#000000>2007</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><FONT color=#000000>年可转债：新增现金需求约<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>亿元</FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><FONT color=#000000>2007</FONT></SPAN><FONT color=#000000>年小非上市：新增资金需求约<SPAN lang=EN-US>600</SPAN>亿元</FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><FONT color=#000000>　　需要注意的是，上述结果只是大致估算，实际的资金需求和供给还得视当时市场的实际环境变化而定。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p><FONT color=#000000>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 以上数据，各大证和财经杂志，都可以查找，大家可以自己动手整理。</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; TEXT-INDENT: -36pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.0pt"><FONT color=#000000><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">2、 宏观经济和政策<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">2007</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">年人民币保持升值趋势<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">2007</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">年中国经济维持<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>％以上增长速度的，货币供应保持稳定<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">2007</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">年政策方面国家明年金融市场重点是债卷市场、融资和加强房地产调控等等，没有更详细的数据，也没有头绪怎样对股市分析。欢迎大家来讨论<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; TEXT-INDENT: -36pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.0pt"><FONT color=#000000><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-list: Ignore">3．<SPAN style="FONT: 7pt 'Times New Roman'">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">股市预期<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt"><FONT color=#000000><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">2007</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">年，可能没有<SPAN lang=EN-US>2006</SPAN>年这么火爆。但我依然看好，不管怎么说牛市刚起步。国家级别推动的行情，周期不会短。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><FONT color=#000000>在国内，股市和地产两个市场，个人看法，基本上趋势相反。美国的房地产走弱，和以铜为代表的工业商品的中短期走弱，可能会对国内房地产市场带来压力，明年房地产依然不温不火，而股市依然红火。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
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[ 本帖最后由 TigerX4 于 2006-12-28 13:44 编辑 ]