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METALS OUTLOOK: Possible Rebound For Gold Next Week, But Nervousness Remains
23 Spetember 2011, 2:34 p.m.
By Debbie Carlson
Of Kitco News
http://www.kitco.com/ |
(Kitco News) - Gold prices could rebound next week as bargain hunters seek to buy the metal up at prices not seen since August, but not everyone is convinced gold will be able to rally from the sharp break it suffered this week.
Some technical chart analysts said in the short-term damage has been done to gold prices and further weakness is expected. Those who see lower prices are also skeptical that global leaders will take much action beyond pronouncement to stabilize frail outlooks.
The global rout of all markets caught precious metals markets in the whirlpool of sinking prices. The sell off this week was ignited when the Federal Reserve sought to flatten the yield curve by selling short-term debt and buying long-term securities. Although that move was expected, the Fed’s statement of “significant risks” to the U.S. economy shook investor confidence. Combined with a negative manufacturing reading out of China and persistent problems in Europe regarding a possible Greek default, investors started selling without discrimination. Only U.S. Treasurys and the dollar rose.
Gold fell in this break as investors sought to sell winning positions to their raise cash or meet margin calls in other markets. Any nervous buyers who had profits sought to pocket those as prices were caught in the downdraft. Of all the precious metals, silver saw the greatest losses.
The most-active December gold contract on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $1,639.80 an ounce, down 9.6% on the week. December silver settled at $30.101an ounce, down 26% on the week.
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 34 participants, 23 responded this week. Of those 23 participants, 12 see prices up, while 10 see prices down, and one sees prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical chart analysts.
Several of the market watchers who see firmer prices said they expect the sharp sell off in prices, particularly for gold, to be met by bargain hunters and that could send prices sharply higher. The key is to watch and see how gold acts in the next few weeks to get a sense of direction.
“Looking ahead, it will be very interesting to see how gold responds - many investors have craved a buying opportunity (particularly Indian traders) and the recent fall creates a monumental window of opportunity to get in on gold. On the other hand price volatility of this sort is typically deeply destructive to investor confidence. It remains to be seen which motive will win out between the two,” said Ross Norman, chief executive officer of Sharps Pixley.
Norman said for much of 2011 gold did not dwell at lower levels, “showing it had strength in depth,” now investors must wait and see if it happens gain. He feels a price floor is being established.
Charles Nedoss, senior market strategist with Olympus Futures, said perhaps gold will “catch a bounce,” but he said judging by the way gold acted on Friday, remaining weaker even as the dollar gave up some of its gains, wasn’t a positive sign for higher prices.
He said the fact the Fed did not engage in another round of quantitative easing was negative for gold. Also, he said equities were holding up better than he expected, with the S&P 500 index staying above 1100 might be a sign that investors wanted to hold their equity positions at the expense of their commodity positions.
This weekend market participants will watch for any action out of world leaders regarding the break in markets and the wobbly shape of Greek finances. A Group of 20 communiqué released on Friday morning suggested that governments will take all necessary actions to preserve the stability of banking systems and financial markets as required.
Not everyone is convinced. “Color us skeptical. For one, they provided no time line for action and in the meantime the EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) will need to be ratified by all members of the (eurozone) before policy makers can make any changes to the current structure of the facility,” say the analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman.
The firm says only been a few European governments that have ratified the implementation of the EFSF, and others are not hurrying up any schedule to vote on it. “To us, that indicates that European policy makers are again unlikely to take decisive action to vote on the implementation and potential enhancement of the EFSF, which implies further downside potential for risk appetite,” they add.
That’s putting pressure on the euro and allowing the dollar to gain. The strength of the dollar against a host of currencies is weighing on all commodities, gold included, since commodities are dollar-denominated.
The drop in commodities, in particular the industrial commodities like crude oil, copper, silver and the platinum group metals reflects the slowing economic growth globally, market watchers said. If this is the case, that is anti-inflationary, this gives investors one less reason to buy gold in the short-term.
The lack of action is not limited to Europe. Analysts at Credit Agricole-CIB point to the divisive U.S. government as another problem. “At the same time as the G20 was promising big things, the U.S. Congress was displaying the kind of fractious mindset, voting down a spending bill on partisan grounds, that has the market fretting about the ability of the US to side-step a recession. If policy cannot co-operate on a national level, can we really expect co-ordination on an international G20 scale,” they said.
Tom Pawlicki, analyst at MFGlobal, said day-to-day movements for the markets will be a “tough call” as bounces from sharp sell offs are possible, and support could come from potential intervention in the economy by policymakers to prevent a recession. Further, uncertainty over events in Greece remains a factor.
“Over the next few weeks, however, we think that prices will continue to fall and eventually test the $1,580-$1,650 range,” he said, adding those levels come from the 62% retracement of the July-August uptrend and from the May 2nd high.
Jim Wyckoff, technical analyst at Kitco News, said short-term technical charts have turned bearish, although long term charts are still bullish. He said the break through $1,705.40 was significant. Support for gold is seen at $1,600.
For silver, Olympus Futures’ Nedoss said that market “has thrown in the towel,” especially after falling through the 200-day moving average around $36.07. Silver saw the worst performance of any precious metal as the industrial side and investor nervousness drags it down.
Wyckoff said “very serious” near-term technical damage was done to silver futures. Resistance for December silver is at $33 and support at $30.
By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News dcarlson@kitco.com |
周五中国尾市白银T+D跌停了，按照目前的价格和计算方式，下周一是否也会跌停呢？五月的那一幕似乎在重演，但是情况不同，目前的200日均线在36.07, 一下子刷到30只能说白银的市场太小了 |
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