巴菲特解释为何投资股票胜过黄金与债券

patrician

巴菲特解释为何投资股票胜过黄金与债券

投资 2012年02月09日 22:12　　　 文 / 若离
股神巴菲特2月9日在财富网站发表文章，称在今天的环境下，他不喜欢以货币为基础的投资，阐述了他认为股票胜过黄金与债券的理由。

他认为

衡量投资的风险不是根据波动性，而是根据投资会导致投资者在计划持有期间内丧失购买力的可能性。只要在持有期间资产合理地体现购买力增加，即使价格大幅波动，也没有风险。而无波动的资产可能存在风险。
货币市场基金、债券、抵押贷款、银行存款和其他工具都以给定的货币计价。大多数这类货币为基础的投资都是最危险资产，它们的波动性可能是零，但风险很大。
高利率可以弥补这类投资面临通胀风险的损失，但目前的利率不能。现在应该警惕债券。

巴菲特还举了如下例子：

把今天世界上所有的储备黄金——17万吨熔铸成一个每面约68英尺的立方体。如果每盎司黄金价格1750美元，这个立方体的价值大约9.6万亿美元。我们称它立方体A。

然后来创造一个和立方体A价格相同的立方体B。为此，我们要买下美国所有的耕地（4亿英亩，年产值2000亿美元），以及16家埃克森美孚公司（全球利润最高的公司，年利润超过400亿美元）。买下这些以后，我们还有1万亿美元可以用来零花。你能想象到，一个9.6万亿美元在手的投资者会选立方体A还是立方体B？

不计对现存黄金令人吃惊的估值，目前的价格让今天的黄金年产值达到约1600亿美元。买家——不论是珠宝和工业用户还是投资者——都必须不断消化增加的供应。这仅仅是为了维持现有价格的平衡。

一个世纪以后，无论可能用哪种货币，4亿英亩农田都会生产出大量的玉米、小麦、棉花和其他作物，继续带来有价值的回报。埃克森美孚则可能分红数万亿美元，持有16家这样的公司会新增数万亿美元。而17万吨黄金既不会增加规模，也不能创造任何产品。你可以深情抚摸它，它却不会有回应。

Ah-Q

这种看法符合马克思的论点：劳动创造价值。

满得饭

巴菲特过去十四年总投资回报50%.
复利年均3%,
低于14年平均人民币一年期定期存款利率回报

livermore

Buffett: Bonds Among Most Dangerous Assets on Inflation Risk

By Noah Buhayar - Feb 9, 2012 9:57 AM ET .

Warren Buffett, the billionaire chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., said low interest rates and inflation should dissuade investors from buying bonds and other holdings tied to currencies.

“They are among the most dangerous of assets,” Buffett said in an adaptation of his annual letter to shareholders that appeared today on Fortune magazine’s website. “Over the past century these instruments have destroyed the purchasing power of investors in many countries, even as these holders continued to receive timely payments of interest and principal.”

Buffett, 81, who built Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire from a failing textile maker into a firm selling insurance, energy and jewelry through acquisitions and stock picks, echoed Laurence D. Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc. Fink said this week that investors should be 100 percent in equities, because of depressed stock valuations and the Federal Reserve’s pledge to keep interest rates low.

“High interest rates, of course, can compensate purchasers for the inflation risk they face with currency-based investments -- and indeed, rates in the early 1980s did that job nicely,” Buffett wrote. “Current rates, however, do not come close to offsetting the purchasing-power risk that investors assume. Right now bonds should come with a warning label.”

The Fed has kept borrowing costs near zero, and said last month that economic conditions may warrant “exceptionally low levels” for rates through at least late 2014 to boost the economy and put more Americans back to work. Buffett said other currency-based investments that may pose a risk include money- market funds, mortgages and bank deposits.

IBM, Coca-Cola
Berkshire still holds bonds, primarily Treasuries, for liquidity, and has a preference to invest in companies by buying them outright or acquiring stock, Buffett said. The firm purchased Lubrizol Corp. for about $9 billion and took a more than $10 billion stake in International Business Machines Corp. last year.

Berkshire had more than $68 billion of equities as of Sept. 30 including the largest stakes in Coca-Cola Co. and Wells Fargo & Co., the biggest U.S. bank by market value. Fixed-maturity investments of about $34 billion included holdings of government debt, corporate bonds and mortgage-backed securities. Cash (BRK/A) and cash equivalents were about $34.8 billion.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has climbed 7.3 percent this year through yesterday after being little changed in 2011. Yields (USGG10YR) on 10-year Treasuries rose above 2 percent for the first time in two weeks yesterday after touching a record low of 1.67 percent in September.

‘The Fearful’
Buffett said investors should avoid gold, because its uses are limited and it doesn’t have the potential of farmland or companies to produce new wealth. Achieving a long-term gain on the metal requires an “expanding pool of buyers” who believe the group will increase further, he said.

“What motivates most gold purchasers is their belief that the ranks of the fearful will grow,” he wrote. “During the past decade that belief has proved correct. Beyond that, the rising price has on its own generated additional buying enthusiasm, attracting purchasers who see the rise as validating an investment thesis. As ‘bandwagon’ investors join any party, they create their own truth -- for a while.”

Gold prices have climbed to more than $1,700 an ounce from less than $300 in the last decade, as investors sought safety in bullion.

Buffett uses his annual letter to Berkshire shareholders to opine on the economy, the firm’s operating units, corporate governance and other issues. The full document accompanies financial statements and will probably be released later this month.

To contact the reporter on this story: Noah Buhayar in New York at nbuhayar@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Kraut at dkraut2@bloomberg.net

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/20 ... ates-inflation.html

livermore

sorry no chinese in this computer.