数据背景

henry

November Nonfarm Payrolls
Manufacturing expected to show a fifth consecutive decline as demand dries up.
Construction expected to show another decline as residential effects become more clear.
A 120K gain in private service sector jobs holds in recent range.
Heart of the gain is professional, health and accomodations.
Retail expected to show 7th decline in last 8 months.  Seasonality plays a crucial role for the size.
Added Government workers expected to come in just shy of the 37K 3 month average.
Unemployment Rate:
An unchanged 4.4% rate expected.  Lowest since May 2001 and continues to trend lower.  
Large 810K estimated upward revision to employment in year ended March 06 argues that payroll gains are understated.
Trends are strong with employment rising 2.7 mln over 12 months, unemployment -0.7 mln.
5% rate generally considered to be inflation neutral full employment (NAIRU).
Hourly Earnings:</STRONG>   An 0.3% gain leaves a 5 1/2 year high of 4.2% yoy.
The lift in labor costs add increased Fed sensitivity to pace of earnings growth.
Earnings track production workers as broader wage and salary growth shows stronger 6% yoy gain
Average Workweek:   Been shifting between 33.8 and 33.9 hours for the last 6 months.
Stood at the post recession high of 33.9 hours in October.
Indicator for real time labor need (prior to hiring/layoffs).  
Rise consistent with decline in the unemployment rate.
2006 payroll gains have been holding lower over the last half year but haven't yet stopped the unemployment rate which reached a new cyclical low of 4.4% in October.  The relatively low labor participation rate continues to leave lean worker availability as the payroll data is estimated to have undercounted by a hefty 810K in the year ended in March.  Employment trends lag the economy as final demand -- in excess of labor productivity -- feeds in to labor demand.  Hourly earnings (for production workers) fell off a five year high in September as the workweek has returned to the post recession high.  Signs of a strong labor market despite the modest growth in reported payrolls

[ 本帖最后由 Trend 于 2007-1-10 18:19 编辑 ]