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Crude oil hit a record above the $100 a barrel level on Tuesday, spearheading a broad advance across commodity markets that included gains for grains and base metals and a continuation of platinum’s record-breaking run.
Nymex March West Texas Intermediate hit a record $100.10, just above its previous peak of $100.09 set in January. As well as reaching an intra-day record, WTI also settled at a new peak of $100.01 a barrel, up $4.51 or 4.7 per cent, at the end of trading in New York. Short-covering before the expiry of the March contract at the close on Wednesday contributed to the rise but the April WTI contract also traded strongly, up $3.90 at $99.35.
“The oil complex is getting the benefit of both fundamentals and money flows,” said Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank: “Investors are looking for a place to put their funds where they don’t have to worry about ‘sub-prime’ and all of its negative financial ramifications. The move above $100 for WTI is likely to reverse but ‘selling’ oil keeps proving to be bad advice.”
Crude oil prices have also found support from concerns about the legal battle between Venezuela and Exxon Mobil and supply interruptions.
In Nigeria, shipments of Bonny light remain subject to disruption due to a pipeline leak, while in Russia, Lukoil has stopped crude supplies to German refineries due to a dispute over pricing.
ICE April Brent settled at $98.56 a barrel, up $3.65 or 3.8 per cent, after reaching a contract record of $98.70.
US petrol prices hit a record after an explosion on Monday at Alon’s 67,000 barrels-a-day Big Spring refinery in Texas. A restart date has yet to be announced. Nymex RBOB unleaded gasoline reached $2.6169 a gallon before retreating to $2.6031, up 10.9 cents.
Crude’s move to within striking distance of the $100 mark has also prompted renewed speculation about Opec’s next move. However, Chakib Khelil, president of Opec, appeared to rule out a supply increase at the cartel’s next meeting in March, indicating that production would either be cut or unchanged.
China’s top planning body took the unusual step of issuingissued a statement on rapeseed production after talk that winter weather has damaged 40 per cent of this year’s crop. China said there would be “no impact” on supplies of rapeseed with output this year expected to fall by just 200,000 tonnes compared with last year, equal to 0.3 per cent of annual consumption.
Speculation that China will have to look for alternative vegetable oil supplies pushed Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil prices and European rapeseed prices to record levels yesterday. In Malaysia, May palm oil futures rose hit a record M$3,646 a tonne before settling 1 per cent higher at M$3,625 a tonne.
Traders were speculating about a move to M$4,000 ahead of February export figures, due for release today.
Talk that China has been looking for supplies of oilseeds and vegetable oils from major global exporters helped push US soyaoil and soyabean prices higher. CBOT March soyabeans jumped 37¼ cents to a record $14.11 a bushel. News from South America remains mixed with dryness is expected to affect soyabean yields in Argentina.
CBOT March wheat rose 17 cents to $10.47½ a bushel, while CBOT corn added 6 cents at $5.20¾ a bushel.
Platinum rose 2.1 per cent to $2,150 a troy ounce after reaching a record $2,160 earlier in the session on concerns about South Africa where power supply difficulties have caused production problems.
“We are not sure where platinum will top out but a move towards the $2,500 to $3,000 range is not unrealistic,” said Michael Jansen of JP Morgan.
Mr Jansen said demand destruction should now be a factor in the market, especially in the more price elastic jewellery sector which has already seen consumption decrease by 53 per cent over the past five years due to high prices.
“The reality is that a significant proportion of platinum demand, for use in diesel and petrol autocatalysts, is largely mandated by emissions legislation,” said Mr Jansen.
Copper surged through the $8,000 level, gaining 2.8 per cent at $8,197 a tonne, after a further hefty fall of 4,025 tonnes in LME stocks, which have shrunk to their lowest level since mid-October. Copper is moving to China where demand is expected to surge after severe winter weather damaged numerous power stations and electricity supply networks.
Hussein Allidina of Morgan Stanley said the supercycle for base metals was gaining momentum as supply headwinds had become extreme.
“After shortages of equipment, infrastructure, labour, together with strikes and windfall taxes, the critical problems facing mining companies include growing global shortages of power and water,” said Mr Allidina: “Although China, South Africa, Zambia and Chile are all facing severe power problems. this could still be just the tip of the iceberg. We believe supply growth could remain constrained for at least the next 10 years, underpinning the base metals supercycle theme.”
Morgan Stanley estimates that infrastructure spending in emerging markets over the next ten years will reach $21,700bn as urbanisation gathers pace and this should ensure demand for base metal remains largely unaffected by any slowdown in growth in the developed world.
Gold rose 2.7 per cent to $927.50, supported by dollar weakness. |
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发表于 2008-2-20 05:41:23
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