保持警惕，可能会出现大趋势(黄金 2007-8-22）

黄河之水天上来

保持警惕，可能会出现大趋势

作者： 金府丽人

08-23 18:31

黄河之水天上来

[size=+2]Gold Market Update

-- Gold held up remarkably well last week given the carnage all around, with silver and Precious Metals stocks cratering, and despite the sharp drop on Thursday it did not break below critical support, unlike silver. While we are certainly not out of the woods yet with regard to the US sub-prime crisis, Central Banks and the Fed have made it clear over the past couple of weeks, and notably with the Fed’s surprise announcement of a 0.50% reduction in the Discount Window early last Friday, that they will use any and every means at their disposal to avert a global deflationary crisis. The main constituents of their “medicine” are massive infusions of liquidity, which we have already seen, and capped or falling interest rates. What all this means is that the party can be expected to resume with stockmarkets resuming their upward march, and inflation continuing to climb. To achieve this the dollar may need to be sacrificed, which from the standpoint of the US is not so dumb, considering its formidable army of creditors. However, it may not need to be as we can be quite sure that the Fed is working robustly to protect the interests of US bond holders, which means that there is some serious arm twisting going on behind the scenes - and not just behind the scenes - In Barrons last week was a small article that essentially said that the EU Central Bank now must seriously re-think any further interest rate rises. Let’s hope for their sake that the European central bankers read this over their cornflakes. Although the Discount Window is in itself not important, the cut implies that the all-important overnight Fed Funds rate is going to come down - and for that to happen other countries, especially major power blocs such as the European Union, are going to have to play ball, and if they do the threat to the dollar will be alleviated. Thus gold can look forward to basking in the glow of at least two of three major bullish drivers - capped or falling interest rates, robust inflation and a possible significant decline in the dollar. We shouldn’t count on the latter but the other two appear to be “in the bag”.  Looking at the 2-year chart we can see how significant differences have emerged between gold and silver in recent times. Gold has been looking stronger than silver for months, and managed to break above the “Distribution Dome” shown - silver did not achieve this and paid the price last week when the Dome forced its collapse below an important support level. Gold remains within a tight range bounded by the important red support level shown at and above $635 and the strong resistance at and towards the April high approaching $700, and although it is believed to be in position to break higher soon for the reasons set out above, with the fundamental picture brightening rapidly in recent days, we should not overlook the potential Head-and-Shoulders top on the chart that has formed between February and the present. Our stops have been set below the March low at $635 for some time, and stops should continue to be set below this level, although holders should be aware that if it drops below this key level a rapid plunge is to be expected similar to that which occurred in silver last week when it breached its key support. That said gold looks good here and the Head-and-Shoulders danger will be negated by a move above the April high towards $700 which would likely mark the start of a breakout drive above last years’ highs at about $730. It is logical to suppose that gold will mark time for a while before it breaks higher to allow sentiment in beaten down silver to recover sufficiently to enable it to break back above its new resistance level in the $12 - $12.50 zone.

[ 本帖最后由 黄河之水天上来 于 2007-8-24 10:16 编辑 ]

黄河之水天上来

Oil Market Update August 21st, 2007
In the last update we predicted the failure of the intermediate uptrend in crude a day before it occurred, on the basis of analysis of COT data coupled with severe deterioration in oil stock prices. The action in oil stocks presaged the breakdown in oil itself and right now, with oil stocks showing signs of bottoming, they look set to presage an intermediate reversal in oil again. On the 1-year chart for Light Crude we can see the breakdown early this month, which followed an unbroken 2-month uptrend. However, this is certainly a bullish looking chart overall, with the price advancing away from a large, irregular Head-and-Shoulders bottom. The fact that the intermediate uptrend failed early this month is hardly surprising after a steep 2-month uptrend that took the MACD indicator shown at the bottom of the chart to a level indicating a very overbought condition. Following the breakdown the price has reacted back to the $70 level where it has been finding 搑ound number?support, although substantial support only comes into play around the $67 level, and the current rather large gap between the 50 and 200-day moving averages indicates a strong probability that the price will react back towards this level, although it may not get that far before the new uptrend begins. Thus, crude is viewed as a buy in coming weeks on further decline towards the $67 area. The COT chart shows the extreme Commercial short position early this month that enabled us to predict the breakdown in crude. There was an element of luck in this as these figures are deliberately released late to keep ordinary investors in the dark - in this case the market obligingly didn抰 plunge until several days later. Not surprisingly, the Commercials short position has since dropped considerably as the price has gone into retreat, although it is not yet at a level that signifies that the time is ripe for a new uptrend to begin. We won抰 know, of course, what level the Commercial short position dropped to on the plunge into Thursday until this Friday, of course. Thus, it is considered likely, given in addition the location of the next important support level in the $67 area, and the large gap between the 50 and 200-day moving averages, as mentioned above, that oil will drift somewhat lower in coming weeks towards, but probably not reaching, $67, even if oil stocks have already bottomed as suspected. Oil stocks are a rather different story. Just as they topped out before crude, they appear to be bottoming out before it now. We exited most oil stocks too early on the preceding intermediate uptrend which took prices to the upper limit of expectations. Actually they exceeded our best expectations by hopping above the uppermost return channel line on the 2-year OIX oil index chart shown, and as is customary when this happens, they then did a rapid about face and plunged - but at least that meant we weren抰 around by the time this happened. As we can see oil stocks have now fallen into the target zone given in the last update, where it was stated that the drop should take the index at least back to its 200-day moving average, and possibly back as far as the lower channel line, currently at about 655. Last Thursday抯 dramatic Reversal Day in this index and in the broad stockmarket signifies, however, that the low is probably in - this low being the intraday low on Thursday, which the index may approach again in coming days and weeks, presenting a better buying opportunity. As usual, would be buyers face the conundrum of buying now, or angling for better prices in the weeks ahead that would be presented by a retest of the lows, and thus risking missing an upside breakout in the meantime. This dilemma is considered best handled by partial purchases around current levels and completion of buying on a dip should it occur. One final point - oil is the lifeblood of the modern world, and barring an all-out market crash, which doesn抰 look likely despite recent jitters, oil companies generally, and especially large oil companies, which are relatively immune from the risks afflicting smaller companies, can be expected to continue to do well. This means that the inevitable periodic corrections in large oil stocks such as we are now seeing present windows of opportunity for investors to take positions in these stocks, which in addition to their growth potential, also pay good dividends.

黄河之水天上来

MARKETWATCH - big move believed imminent in gold & silver - STRATEGIES... There is a rare convergence of technical factors that points to a really big move in gold and silver soon, and it is no coincidence that the dollar is at a critical juncture. Late last week and into this week the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) came out of the shadows guns blazing in a desperate attempt to prevent worldwide market meltdown, and while they succeeded in temporarily holding back the floodgates, the pressure continues to mount, and they can be expected to be put to the test repeatedly in coming weeks and months. At best - if they succeed - their massive infusions of liquidity will stoke the fires of inflation, at worst their efforts will be futile and backfire in an intensified deflationary implosion, in which liquidity evaporates, and interest rates skyrocket as credit becomes almost impossible to obtain. Should the latter scenario eventuate we could see a wild dollar spike, made far worse by panic short covering, as investors dash for cash and race against rising rates to pay down debt while there is still a chance. Bonds, stocks and commercial paper will be tossed overboard indiscriminately. Even those debt instruments loftily described in recent days by various TV market commentators as being of 揼ood quality?will be jettisoned, and in a market devoid of bids the prices of many of these investments will go into freefall. With rates rising steeply gold and silver cannot be expected to escape unscathed, and this of course will be especially true if the dollar spikes. For the above reasons it is therefore of the utmost importance for investors in gold and silver - and Precious Metals stocks - and for anyone short the dollar to have a 搇ine in the sand? an exit strategy, in the event that the latter scenario prevails. Fortunately, nearby parameters are clearly defined. Conditions of extraordinary calm currently exist in the gold and silver markets - a calm which history and a battery of indicators suggest is not going to last much longer. We will now look at these conditions on 2-year charts for gold and silver, which we will compare and contrast. On these charts we can see that bearish 揇istribution Domes?have formed in both metals over the past year or so. These patterns are bearish of course because of the evident distribution - and remain so unless and until the price can break out above the top of the dome pattern. This has happened with gold but its breakout has been somewhat marginal and has not been confirmed by silver, which has tried to break out of its dome on a couple of occasions and failed. One danger with gold is that it may have broken out from its dome only to form the Right Shoulder of a Head-and-Shoulders top, with the Left Shoulder of the pattern having formed in February and the Head in April - May. Several technical factors are converging to suggest that a big move is in the offing - one is the steady narrowing of price fluctuations over a period of many months, reflected in the convergence of the MACD indicator on both charts towards the zero line. Another is the current tight grouping of the prices of gold and silver with their respective moving averages, which in the case of silver have flattened out, increasing downside risk. Another is the continued narrowing of the Bollinger Bands (not shown) that indicates a condition of tranquility that cannot be expected to persist for much longer. Looking at both charts we can see that the Domes on each of them are rapidly dropping back towards the critical support zones marked in red, so that we will see a breakout one way or the other soon. Put simply, gold and silver had better get on with and break out upside almost immediately - which they are still in position to do - to avert the risk of a plunge, which is what would likely follow failure of the red support zones. Our tactics are therefore clear. We remain long gold and silver for a prospective upside breakout - breakout meaning by gold above last year抯 highs at $730 and by silver initially above the Dome resistance line and then followed by a breakout above last year抯 highs - but will exit all positions in the metals in the event that gold breaks below its March lows at $635 and silver breaks below $12, which would take it below its January lows. Should the critical support levels fail, gold and silver can be expected to drop rapidly to the next important support levels shown. The scenarios sketched out for gold and silver closely relate of course to the tight technical situation that also exists in the US dollar. On the long-term dollar index chart we can see how the dollar is currently being forced into a corner between its long-term downtrend line and its crucial long-term support level, a situation that clearly does not have long to run, meaning that we can expect a breakout one way or the other soon. As long as the dollar remains below the downtrend line, it is being pressured to break down, and this is what we will expect to see. However, should it break out upside it is likely to rally steeply. The reason why there is a considerable risk of a steep short-covering rally in the event that the price breaks above the trendline is this: fundamentally it is hard to think of any good reasons to be long the dollar now, and this is the view that is widely held across markets, as a result of which short positions are running at a high level. Thus, if the dollar should succeed in breaking above the trendline it will trigger short-covering that could rapidly develop into a self-feeding meltup, and it goes without saying that this would be likely to coincide with breakdowns by gold and silver. Therefore our tactics with the dollar are that short positions should be immediately closed out in the event that it breaks above the long-term downtrend line, and long positions may be considered by speculative traders after it has gotten clear of the trendline. Note that after the meltup, the grim fundamentals would be expected to re-assert themselves and the dollar would go into retreat once more. Our general tactics with regard to Precious Metals stocks are to remain long whilst the chance of an upside breakout remains alive, but to drastically trim positions in the event that the critical gold and silver support levels fail. Alternatively this may be done when the red support level shown on the 2-year HUI chart is breached. This is thought likely to coincide with the failure of the gold and silver support levels - however, it may be the lower support level that fails at that time, meaning that the red level could give way sooner. Otherwise failure of nearby clear support levels on individual stocks may be used as a signal to exit, and in the case of smaller issues with ill-defined support levels, stop losses may be employed say 10% below their current prices.

黄河之水天上来

Gold Market UpdateSeptember 3rd, 2007


GOLD UPSIDE BREAKOUT ALERT! Gold is now in position to break above last year highs and embark on a major uptrend. On the 2-year chart we can see how, just by virtue of tracking sideways in a narrow range in recent weeks, it is getting clear of the resistance in the vicinity of the Distribution Dome, which of course signals that the distribution phase in the dome pattern is over - those who wanted to sell have done so. While there remains a residual danger of a Head-and-Shoulders top completing as shown on the chart, this risk is now regarded as minimal for reasons that will soon become clear. Gold has performed much better than silver in recent weeks - silver succumbed to the resistance of its dome pattern and crashed important support, whereas gold has remained indefatigable and refused to break down. It is thus most interesting and paradoxical that silver抯 COT structure has improved drastically in recent weeks, so that while gold抯 price picture is currently more positive than silver, silver抯 COT structure is now exceptionally bullish - considerably more bullish than gold抯. From this it is reasonable to conclude that silver抯 plunge last month was not the start of a major breakdown, but rather a final capitulative flushout. What this means is that both metals are now in position for a powerful rally, which is likely to start sooner rather than later.

  When we consider the 2-year gold chart further we can see that the price is above all of its principal moving averages, which are bunched together and rising - this is a most auspicious circumstance, particularly as the price is now getting clear of the dome, and while we must acknowledge the residual Head-and-Shoulders top danger, it is clear that gold is in position for a powerful upside breakout that should drive it clear above last year抯 highs to commence a major uptrend. Note the narrowing of price fluctuations in recent months, highlighted by the neutralization of the MACD indicator at the bottom of the chart - an unusual calm prevails of the kind that normally precedes the emergence of a major trend. The general background situation vis-?vis the broad stockmarket, inflation and interest rates and other factors having a bearing on the outlook for both gold and silver has been set out in the Silver Market update, to which readers are referred - silver got the star treatment in this round of updates on account of the rapid and extraordinary improvement in its prospects. This background situation is now strongly bullish. In conclusion an upside breakout is believed to be fast approaching for gold and it is thus viewed as a strong buy here, although it may back and fill for a little while longer as it waits for sentiment in silver to recover sufficiently for it to overcome its resistance at and towards $12.50.

黄河之水天上来

Silver Market Updateoriginally published September 3rd, 2007
A week or so ago some financial reporters went on a quest to find silver bulls and gave up and went looking for lottery winners instead. At first glance the silver chart looks terrible, with last month dramatic breakdown below an important support level causing its moving averages to roll over and momentum to break to an 11-month low, and appears to confirm a Double Top with last year highs, with the price accelerating away to the downside. So the pullback of the past couple of weeks towards what is now resistance is understandably regarded by many disenchanted bulls as an opportunity to quit in disgust at a slightly better price. However, as we shall see, there is now strong evidence that the August plunge was a final capitulative flushout, and that sophisticated traders have been gleefully mopping up the abundant supply in recent weeks from the disillusioned habitual losers, principally the Large Spec traders.     Before going any further it is worth considering the general background. The 揺nd of the world is nigh?crowd had a field day in August, getting high on the convulsions in the broad market, and their dire predictions have been given a good airing due to a sudden surge in media and public interest. This is not to deride the doom and gloomers or their work - there is a strong basis to their arguments, but according to the indicators we follow the wheel is not going to come off just yet. On the August selling climax the Put - Call ratio rose to an extreme normally associated with a market bottom. Volume indicators for the broad stockmarket remain decidedly bullish with Accumulation-Distribution and On-balance Volume pushing new highs over the past week or two, which given that the market is still well off its highs is quite an accomplishment. Insider buying has been running at a 4-year high, again hardly what you expect to see at the start of a bear market. Finally, the plethora of alarming articles in the mainstream media is what you expect to see at a market bottom. From all this we must conclude that the market is on its way up again and is likely to make new highs, even if some sectors such as house building and home improvement in the US continue to suffer the fallout from the fenced off mortgage crisis. An important point to grasp is that the reasons for the markets being able to recover stability and advance also happen to be bullish for gold and silver - the massive infusions of liquidity required to put the markets back on an upward path are of course inflationary, and thus good news for gold and silver, and the renewed prospect of falling interest rates makes gold and silver more competitive investments, and in addition the lurking risk of a major dollar breakdown perhaps brought on by falling rates would be a powerful additional driver for the Precious Metals. Thus we should see both the broad market and gold and silver advance in unison.     We will now turn to consider the reasons why the plunge last month is regarded as having been a final capitulative flushout. One big reason is the current COT profile for silver, which is viewed as being VERY BULLISH. On the latest COT chart presented above, we can see how the Large Spec long positions, represented by the blue bars, have dropped to an extraordinarily low level, demonstrating that they have finally 搕hrown in the towel?in disgust and walked away. The Large Specs are the clowns of the marketplace, the fall guys who are always wrong and their unusually low level of interest in silver at this time is one of the surest signs you could hope for that silver is going up soon, and probably substantially. Conversely, the Commercials, who are never normally long silver, have greatly reduced their short positions as shown by the purple bars on the chart, to levels that suggest that a major rally is brewing. If you doubt the importance of these observations, then simply take a look at the latest Oil Market update, which utilized COT data to accurately predict the latest upturn in oil and oil shares on the basis of which we bought BP and Conoco Phillips before they turned up, and earlier on we used COT data to accurately predict the early August breakdown in crude. Another important indication of a bottom is that the all important MSI, the Maund Subscriber Index, has dropped to a very low level consistent with us being near to a sector low - people just love to buy stocks - and to subscribe - at the top. Sentiment in the sector has been TERRIBLE these past few weeks, and this in itself is a powerful indication that a major rally in silver - and gold - is close at hand. Finally, referring again to the 2-year silver chart, we must keep in mind that the resistance at the red resistance zone shown is strong, especially as it is reinforced by the Dome resistance boundary now dropping into it from above. Thus, despite the overwhelmingly bullish indications highlighted in this update, we may see a little more backing and filling before silver can break above the resistance zone and the Dome, and it may dip back towards $11.50 near-term which would be a major buying opportunity. Nevertheless, because of the psychological importance of the resistance between the current level and $12.60, if silver should succeed in breaking through it as expected a powerful rally is likely, as many player will want back in once that happens.

黄河之水天上来

大多数人所不知道的美元和黄金的关系

[ 本帖最后由 黄河之水天上来 于 2007-9-6 08:52 编辑 ]

黄河之水天上来

为什么我押注黄金会上冲

[ 本帖最后由 黄河之水天上来 于 2007-9-6 09:43 编辑 ]

黄河之水天上来

Why I'm Betting on a Surging Gold Price  September 04, 2007
When it comes to gold bullion and gold stocks, I need to confess that I started my investment career in 1984 as none other than a mining analyst. Ever since those days of calculating net present values on my trusted HP12C I have been intrigued by the shenanigans of the yellow metal, and related stocks.
And, over the years I have also learned that one should never underestimate the ability of the gold price to surprise when least expected. Friday’s jump of $8 is a case in point. I argued the virtues of a position in gold bullion and gold stocks in an August 14 article entitled “Gold – more than a safe-haven play,” and was therefore not particularly surprised to see some glitter returning to the gold market. However, what did surprise me was a fascinating research study on the outlook for gold bullion that has just landed on my desk. More about that in a moment.
First, let's set the scene by focusing on a chart of the gold price. A few observations come to mind when analyzing the movement:

The price graph is again firmly above both the 50- and 200-day moving averages.
The MACD oscillator has just given a buy signal.
Gold stocks (as represented by the AMEX Gold Bugs (HUI) Index) has started outperforming the gold price – always a positive sign for gold bullion itself.

The research study I refer to was done by Adrian Douglas and deals with an analysis of the open interest of Comex gold options. Douglas’s track record on this front is excellent as in November 2005, he predicted when the gold price was less than $460, that a mega-move was afoot. He based his forecast on a very large build-up of call options in the underlying stocks of the HUI Index. This turned out to be spot on as gold subsequently surged to $714 by May 2006.
This is where it becomes very interesting. Similar to 2005, Douglas has now again noticed a massive build-up of call options in the October and December Comex gold contracts.
Figure 1 below shows the cumulative open interest across all strike prices for gold call and put positions for October. The blue line indicates that if the gold price should increase to, say, $850, approximately 40,000 call options would be in the money. The red line, on the other hand, illustrates that if gold were to drop to $625, about 20,000 put options would be in the money.
FIGURE 1: CUMULATIVE OPEN INTEREST OF PUT & CALL OPTIONS - OCT 2007

Interestingly, the blue line (calls) flattens at around 42,000 contracts, whereas the red line (puts) flattens at 26,000 contracts. This indicates that there are 1.6 times as many bets that gold will rise rather than fall.
Where the curves are not flat, two distinct slopes can be identified as shown by the two different dotted lines labeled 1, and 2. The blue dotted line (1) is very steep, indicating that speculators are prepared to bet heavily on the gold price increasing to at least $740. The second slope (2) is much lower, indicating that speculators are less keen to bet on gold rising above $740 by October.
On the red curve the dotted line, (1) indicates a willingness by the bears to bet on gold declining to around $625, but the second sloping line (2), indicates there is much less enthusiasm to bet on gold falling much below that. The bulls betting on a gold price of $740 outnumber the bears betting on a price of $625 by almost 2 to 1.
Figure 2 shows similar information to the previous graph, but for December 2007. Notice that the total open interest for the calls across all strike prices is 122,000 contracts – almost three times the level of October! The total put option open interest has also risen to 63,000 contracts, which is 2.5 times the October level. The bets by bulls outnumber those by the bears by 2 to 1.
FIGURE 2: CUMULATIVE OPEN INTEREST OF PUT & CALL OPTIONS - DEC 2007

There are again two dotted lines in red. The red dotted line (1) is a higher slope than the red line (2), suggesting bears are not enthusiastic about betting gold will fall below $600.
Now look at the blue dotted line (1). There is only one slope! This suggests speculators are not backing away from betting on gold rising even above $1,100 by December. The open interest in play on the call side is a staggering 12 million ounces. Put differently, this is almost 25% of the worldwide annual mining output. While many options are settled in cash there is always the possibility of a significant proportion being exercised for futures contracts or gold bullion.
Douglas said:

I consider option players highly sophisticated speculators. The sheer size of the call position and the eagerness to speculate with equal propensity for small rises in the gold price as for very large ones are truly astonishing and should, just as in 2005, be taken very seriously.

It is probably no coincidence that the build-up of the Comex positions also corresponds to a typically strong seasonal period for gold. I believe one can do a lot worse in these rather testing times than follow the smart money being positioned for a strong rise in the gold price.

litaoo

好图，就是英文长了点